Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa — Ekstraklasa 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
5/3/2025EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 31Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Stal Mielec34%
×Draw27%
Raków Częstochowa39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.17
Raków Częstochowa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 118 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.14
Raków Częstochowa
1.42

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.13
Raków Częstochowa
1.20

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Raków Częstochowa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
61%
Stal Mielec or Raków Częstochowa
73%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa
66%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
14%
Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
69%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
33%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
11%
Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
72%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
36%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
47%
Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 83 matches

Raków Częstochowa away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.20 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.14 + Raków Częstochowa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.42 + Stal Mielec defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
34%
level
27%
Raków Częstochowa scores more
39%

Raków Częstochowa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa

Raków Częstochowa beat Stal Mielec 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Lato in Mielec.