Stal Mielec 2–1 Lechia Gdansk: Result & Stats

Stal Mielec

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lechia Gdansk

Ł. Wolsztyński 90+2'

P. Wlazło 58'

D. Piła 38'

10/5/2024

Ekstraklasa · Round 11Stadion Miejski w Mielcu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Stal Mielec49%

×Draw24%

Lechia Gdansk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal MielecExpected goals in this matchLechia Gdansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.23

Stal Mielec

1.74

Lechia Gdansk

1.23

Stal Mielec creates 41% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

1.62

creates per match

1.42

1.03

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Stal Mielec

1.62

Lechia Gdansk

1.42

allows per match

Stal Mielec

1.03

Lechia Gdansk

1.86

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Stal Mielec-0.26scores less

Lechia Gdansk+0.03on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Lechia Gdansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw

73%

Stal Mielec or Lechia Gdansk

76%

Draw or Lechia Gdansk

51%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+

27%

Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals

82%

Stal Mielec 2+ goals

52%

Stal Mielec 3+ goals

25%

Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals

71%

Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals

35%

Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)

65%

Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.03 · 11 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.62 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.42 + Stal Mielec defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stal Mielec scores more

49%

level

24%

Lechia Gdansk scores more

27%

Stal Mielec at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

K. Getinger

Stal Mielec · M

8.6

Match Events

5'

Bogdan ViunnykGoal cancelled

12'

Bujar Pllana

21'

Karol Knap

38'

D. Piła↳ M. Khlan

58'

P. Wlazło↳ M. Guillaumier

66'

K. Hinokio← K. Knap

70'

L. Guého← A. Tsarenko

71'

Matthew Guillaumier

78'

R. Assayag← I. Shkurin

78'

P. Bagalianis← M. Matras

86'

L. D'Arrigo← M. Khlan

90+1'

Ł. Wolsztyński← M. Domański

90+2'

Ł. Wolsztyński

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StalLechia

Overview

52%Possession48%

31Total Shots5

2.96Expected Goals (xG)0.28

14Corners2

8Fouls12

Shots

31Total Shots5

8On Target2

12Off Target0

11Blocked3

25Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

367Total Passes361

297Accurate Passes285

81%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk

Stal Mielec beat Lechia Gdansk 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on October 5, 2024.

Goals: D. Piła (38'), P. Wlazło (58'), Ł. Wolsztyński (90+2').

Stal Mielec controlled possession (52%) and registered 31 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Mielec.

Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk