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Stal Mielec vs Lechia Gdansk — Ekstraklasa 2026

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lechia Gdansk
Lechia Gdansk
L. Zwoliński 45'
2/27/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Stal Mielec46%
×Draw24%
Lechia Gdansk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.65
Lechia Gdansk
1.29

Stal Mielec creates 28% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.48
Lechia Gdansk
1.48

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.10
Lechia Gdansk
1.81

finishing

Stal Mielec-0.18scores less
Lechia Gdansk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Lechia Gdansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
70%
Stal Mielec or Lechia Gdansk
76%
Draw or Lechia Gdansk
54%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
24%
Lechia Gdansk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
81%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
49%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
23%
Lechia Gdansk 1+ goals
72%
Lechia Gdansk 2+ goals
37%
Lechia Gdansk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
60%
Lechia Gdansk (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Lechia Gdansk away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.48 + Lechia Gdansk defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.65

Lechia Gdansk attack 1.48 + Stal Mielec defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
46%
level
24%
Lechia Gdansk scores more
30%

Stal Mielec at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
L. Zwoliński↳ J. Biegański
69'
Ł. Zjawiński← A. Kolev
70'
R. Dadok← A. Granlund
72'
Conrado← J. Ceesay
76'
Kristers Tobers
79'
M. Mak← M. Jankowski
79'
A. Prokić← B. Chorbadzhiyski
86'
Karol Fila
88'
T. Makowski← M. Gajos
90'
Maciej Domański

Possession

56%Stal

Shots

17Stal

Statistics

StalLechia
Overview
56%Possession44%
17Total Shots7
15Corners2
12Fouls15
Shots
17Total Shots7
7On Target2
10Off Target5
Passing
56%Possession44%
Goalkeeping
1Saves7
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Ekstraklasa: Stal Mielec 0–1 Lechia Gdansk

Lechia Gdansk beat Stal Mielec 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on February 27, 2021.

Goals: L. Zwoliński (45').

Stal Mielec controlled possession (56%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Mielec.