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Stal Mielec vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

Stal Mielec
Stal Mielec
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
11/10/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 18Stadion MOSiR (Mielec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Stal Mielec63%
×Draw21%
Garbarnia Kraków16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Mielec
1.99
Garbarnia Kraków
0.90

Stal Mielec creates 121% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Stal Mielec
1.80
Garbarnia Kraków
0.71

allows per match

Stal Mielec
1.08
Garbarnia Kraków
2.18

finishing

Stal Mielec+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Mielec ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stal Mielec or draw
84%
Stal Mielec or Garbarnia Kraków
79%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
37%

Winning margin

Stal Mielec wins by 2+
38%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Stal Mielec 1+ goals
86%
Stal Mielec 2+ goals
59%
Stal Mielec 3+ goals
32%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
59%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
23%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stal Mielec (draw refunded)
79%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Mielec at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Mielec attack 1.80 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.99

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Stal Mielec defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Stal Mielec scores more
63%
level
21%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
16%

Stal Mielec at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Stal Mielec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stal Mielec 6–1 Garbarnia Kraków

Stal Mielec beat Garbarnia Kraków 6-1 in I Liga on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR (Mielec).