Stal Kraśnik 1–1 Wisła Puławy: Result & Stats

Stal Kraśnik

FT

1 – 1

Wisła Puławy

J. Mazysz 74'

A. Paluchowski 10'

4/28/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stal Kraśnik22%

×Draw23%

Wisła Puławy56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal KraśnikExpected goals in this matchWisła Puławy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.83

Stal Kraśnik

1.05

Wisła Puławy

1.83

Wisła Puławy creates 74% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

1.46

creates per match

2.10

1.57

allows per match

0.65

creates per match

Stal Kraśnik

1.46

Wisła Puławy

2.10

allows per match

Stal Kraśnik

1.57

Wisła Puławy

0.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Kraśnik ↓

Wisła Puławy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Stal Kraśnik or draw

44%

Stal Kraśnik or Wisła Puławy

77%

Draw or Wisła Puławy

78%

Winning margin

Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+

8%

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals

65%

Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals

28%

Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals

9%

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

84%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

54%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)

28%

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Kraśnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.46 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.05

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stal Kraśnik scores more

22%

level

23%

Wisła Puławy scores more

56%

Wisła Puławy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Paluchowski

74'

J. Mazysz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff