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Stal Kraśnik vs Wiązownica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
FT
1 – 2
Wiązownica
Wiązownica
4/21/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stal Kraśnik47%
×Draw23%
Wiązownica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Kraśnik
1.81
Wiązownica
1.42

Stal Kraśnik creates 27% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 70 away

creates per match

Stal Kraśnik
1.46
Wiązownica
1.26

allows per match

Stal Kraśnik
1.57
Wiązownica
2.17

finishing

Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par
Wiązownica+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Kraśnik ↓

Wiązownica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stal Kraśnik or draw
70%
Stal Kraśnik or Wiązownica
77%
Draw or Wiązownica
53%

Winning margin

Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
25%
Wiązownica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
84%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
54%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
27%
Wiązownica 1+ goals
76%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
41%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
61%
Wiązownica (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Kraśnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Wiązownica away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.46 + Wiązownica defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

Wiązownica attack 1.26 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stal Kraśnik scores more
47%
level
23%
Wiązownica scores more
30%

Stal Kraśnik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stal Kraśnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Stal Kraśnik 1–2 Wiązownica

Wiązownica beat Stal Kraśnik 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Kraśnik.