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Stal Kraśnik vs Łagów — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
FT
1 – 2
Łagów
Łagów
9/12/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stal Kraśnik32%
×Draw26%
Łagów42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Kraśnik
1.24
Łagów
1.47

Łagów creates 19% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 45 away

creates per match

Stal Kraśnik
1.46
Łagów
1.36

allows per match

Stal Kraśnik
1.57
Łagów
1.02

finishing

Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par
Łagów+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Kraśnik ↓

Łagów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stal Kraśnik or draw
58%
Stal Kraśnik or Łagów
74%
Draw or Łagów
68%

Winning margin

Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
13%
Łagów wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
71%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
35%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
13%
Łagów 1+ goals
77%
Łagów 2+ goals
43%
Łagów 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
43%
Łagów (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Kraśnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Łagów away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.46 + Łagów defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Łagów attack 1.36 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stal Kraśnik scores more
32%
level
26%
Łagów scores more
42%

Łagów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Łagów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Stal Kraśnik 1–2 Łagów

Łagów beat Stal Kraśnik 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Kraśnik.