Stal Brzeg 1–4 Raków Częstochowa II: Result & Stats

Stal Brzeg

FT

1 – 4

Raków Częstochowa II

8/17/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stal Brzeg38%

×Draw24%

Raków Częstochowa II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal BrzegExpected goals in this matchRaków Częstochowa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.59

Stal Brzeg

1.57

Raków Częstochowa II

1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

1.43

creates per match

1.53

1.65

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Stal Brzeg

1.43

Raków Częstochowa II

1.53

allows per match

Stal Brzeg

1.65

Raków Częstochowa II

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Raków Częstochowa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Brzeg ↓

Raków Częstochowa II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stal Brzeg or draw

61%

Stal Brzeg or Raków Częstochowa II

76%

Draw or Raków Częstochowa II

62%

Winning margin

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+

18%

Raków Częstochowa II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals

79%

Stal Brzeg 2+ goals

46%

Stal Brzeg 3+ goals

21%

Raków Częstochowa II 1+ goals

80%

Raków Częstochowa II 2+ goals

47%

Raków Częstochowa II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)

49%

Raków Częstochowa II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Brzeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Raków Częstochowa II away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Brzeg attack 1.43 + Raków Częstochowa II defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.57

Raków Częstochowa II attack 1.53 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Stal Brzeg scores more

38%

level

24%

Raków Częstochowa II scores more

39%

Raków Częstochowa II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff