Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stal Brzeg vs Piast Żmigród — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Stal Brzeg
Stal Brzeg
FT
0 – 1
Piast Żmigród
Piast Żmigród
10/30/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Stal Brzeg43%
×Draw23%
Piast Żmigród34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Brzeg
1.77
Piast Żmigród
1.57

Stal Brzeg creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 35 away

creates per match

Stal Brzeg
1.43
Piast Żmigród
1.49

allows per match

Stal Brzeg
1.65
Piast Żmigród
2.11

finishing

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par
Piast Żmigród+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Brzeg ↓

Piast Żmigród →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stal Brzeg or draw
66%
Stal Brzeg or Piast Żmigród
77%
Draw or Piast Żmigród
57%

Winning margin

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+
23%
Piast Żmigród wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals
83%
Stal Brzeg 2+ goals
53%
Stal Brzeg 3+ goals
26%
Piast Żmigród 1+ goals
79%
Piast Żmigród 2+ goals
46%
Piast Żmigród 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)
55%
Piast Żmigród (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Brzeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Piast Żmigród away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Brzeg attack 1.43 + Piast Żmigród defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.77

Piast Żmigród attack 1.49 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stal Brzeg scores more
43%
level
23%
Piast Żmigród scores more
34%

Stal Brzeg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Brzeg vs Piast Żmigród

Piast Żmigród beat Stal Brzeg 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Brzeg.