Stal Brzeg 2–0 Odra Wodzislaw: Result & Stats

Stal Brzeg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Odra Wodzislaw

4/23/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Stal Brzeg46%

×Draw23%

Odra Wodzislaw31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal BrzegExpected goals in this matchOdra Wodzislaw

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.50

Stal Brzeg

1.86

Odra Wodzislaw

1.50

Stal Brzeg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

1.43

creates per match

1.35

1.65

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Stal Brzeg

1.43

Odra Wodzislaw

1.35

allows per match

Stal Brzeg

1.65

Odra Wodzislaw

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Brzeg+0.00on par

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Brzeg ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Stal Brzeg or draw

69%

Stal Brzeg or Odra Wodzislaw

77%

Draw or Odra Wodzislaw

54%

Winning margin

Stal Brzeg wins by 2+

25%

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stal Brzeg 1+ goals

84%

Stal Brzeg 2+ goals

55%

Stal Brzeg 3+ goals

28%

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

78%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

44%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Stal Brzeg (draw refunded)

60%

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Brzeg at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.65 · 69 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Brzeg attack 1.43 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.86

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Stal Brzeg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stal Brzeg scores more

46%

level

23%

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

31%

Stal Brzeg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stal Brzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff