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Stafford Rangers vs Port Vale — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Stafford Rangers
Stafford Rangers
FT
2 – 0
Port Vale
Port Vale
7/9/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Marston Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stafford Rangers49%
×Draw28%
Port Vale22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stafford Rangers
1.33
Port Vale
0.79

Stafford Rangers creates 68% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stafford Rangers
1.50
Port Vale
1.33

allows per match

Stafford Rangers
0.25
Port Vale
1.17

finishing

Stafford Rangers+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stafford Rangers ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stafford Rangers or draw
78%
Stafford Rangers or Port Vale
72%
Draw or Port Vale
51%

Winning margin

Stafford Rangers wins by 2+
23%
Port Vale wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stafford Rangers 1+ goals
74%
Stafford Rangers 2+ goals
38%
Stafford Rangers 3+ goals
15%
Port Vale 1+ goals
55%
Port Vale 2+ goals
19%
Port Vale 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stafford Rangers (draw refunded)
69%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stafford Rangers at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stafford Rangers attack 1.50 + Port Vale defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Port Vale attack 1.33 + Stafford Rangers defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Stafford Rangers scores more
49%
level
28%
Port Vale scores more
22%

Stafford Rangers at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Stafford Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Stafford Rangers 2–0 Port Vale

Stafford Rangers beat Port Vale 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at Marston Road in Stafford, Staffordshire.