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Stadlau vs Simmeringer SC — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Stadlau
Stadlau
FT
2 – 0
Simmeringer SC
Simmeringer SC
3/9/2024Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 17OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Stadlau48%
×Draw24%
Simmeringer SC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadlau
1.67
Simmeringer SC
1.22

Stadlau creates 37% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 45 away

creates per match

Stadlau
1.42
Simmeringer SC
1.02

allows per match

Stadlau
1.42
Simmeringer SC
1.91

finishing

Stadlau+0.00on par
Simmeringer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadlau ↓

Simmeringer SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Stadlau or draw
72%
Stadlau or Simmeringer SC
76%
Draw or Simmeringer SC
52%

Winning margin

Stadlau wins by 2+
25%
Simmeringer SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stadlau 1+ goals
81%
Stadlau 2+ goals
50%
Stadlau 3+ goals
23%
Simmeringer SC 1+ goals
70%
Simmeringer SC 2+ goals
34%
Simmeringer SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Stadlau (draw refunded)
63%
Simmeringer SC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadlau at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 74 matches

Simmeringer SC away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadlau attack 1.42 + Simmeringer SC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.67

Simmeringer SC attack 1.02 + Stadlau defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stadlau scores more
48%
level
24%
Simmeringer SC scores more
28%

Stadlau at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stadlau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Stadlau 2–0 Simmeringer SC

Stadlau beat Simmeringer SC 2-0 in Landesliga - Wien on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau in Wien.