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Stadlau vs Mannswörth — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Stadlau
Stadlau
FT
3 – 1
Mannswörth
Mannswörth
10/14/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 9OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Stadlau53%
×Draw22%
Mannswörth25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadlau
2.00
Mannswörth
1.33

Stadlau creates 50% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 59 away

creates per match

Stadlau
1.42
Mannswörth
1.24

allows per match

Stadlau
1.42
Mannswörth
2.58

finishing

Stadlau+0.00on par
Mannswörth+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadlau ↓

Mannswörth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Stadlau or draw
75%
Stadlau or Mannswörth
78%
Draw or Mannswörth
47%

Winning margin

Stadlau wins by 2+
31%
Mannswörth wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stadlau 1+ goals
86%
Stadlau 2+ goals
59%
Stadlau 3+ goals
32%
Mannswörth 1+ goals
74%
Mannswörth 2+ goals
38%
Mannswörth 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Stadlau (draw refunded)
68%
Mannswörth (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadlau at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 74 matches

Mannswörth away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.58 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadlau attack 1.42 + Mannswörth defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.00

Mannswörth attack 1.24 + Stadlau defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stadlau scores more
53%
level
22%
Mannswörth scores more
25%

Stadlau at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Stadlau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Stadlau 3–1 Mannswörth

Stadlau beat Mannswörth 3-1 in Landesliga - Wien on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau in Wien.