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Stadlau vs Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Stadlau
Stadlau
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
10/13/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 11OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stadlau33%
×Draw23%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadlau
1.50
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.75

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf creates 17% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 104 away

creates per match

Stadlau
1.60
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.51

allows per match

Stadlau
2.00
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
1.39

finishing

Stadlau+0.00on par
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadlau ↓

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stadlau or draw
56%
Stadlau or Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
77%
Draw or Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
67%

Winning margin

Stadlau wins by 2+
16%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Stadlau 1+ goals
78%
Stadlau 2+ goals
44%
Stadlau 3+ goals
19%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 1+ goals
83%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 2+ goals
52%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Stadlau (draw refunded)
43%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadlau at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.39 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadlau attack 1.60 + Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf attack 1.51 + Stadlau defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stadlau scores more
33%
level
23%
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf scores more
44%

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Ost: Stadlau 2–5 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf

Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf beat Stadlau 5-2 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau (Wien).