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Stadlau vs Bruck/Leitha — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Stadlau
Stadlau
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
11/10/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 15OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau (Wien)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stadlau46%
×Draw22%
Bruck/Leitha32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadlau
1.89
Bruck/Leitha
1.54

Stadlau creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 54 away

creates per match

Stadlau
1.60
Bruck/Leitha
1.09

allows per match

Stadlau
2.00
Bruck/Leitha
2.17

finishing

Stadlau+0.00on par
Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadlau ↓

Bruck/Leitha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Stadlau or draw
68%
Stadlau or Bruck/Leitha
78%
Draw or Bruck/Leitha
54%

Winning margin

Stadlau wins by 2+
25%
Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Stadlau 1+ goals
85%
Stadlau 2+ goals
56%
Stadlau 3+ goals
29%
Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
79%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
45%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stadlau (draw refunded)
59%
Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadlau at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Bruck/Leitha away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadlau attack 1.60 + Bruck/Leitha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.89

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.09 + Stadlau defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stadlau scores more
46%
level
22%
Bruck/Leitha scores more
32%

Stadlau at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stadlau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stadlau vs Bruck/Leitha

Bruck/Leitha beat Stadlau 4-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at OMV-Sportanlage Stadlau (Wien).