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Stadl-Paura vs Völkermarkt — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Völkermarkt
Völkermarkt
4/18/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 22Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stadl-Paura44%
×Draw21%
Völkermarkt34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
1.99
Völkermarkt
1.74

Stadl-Paura creates 14% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
1.45
Völkermarkt
0.93

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
2.55
Völkermarkt
2.53

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Völkermarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Völkermarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
66%
Stadl-Paura or Völkermarkt
79%
Draw or Völkermarkt
56%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
25%
Völkermarkt wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
86%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
59%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
32%
Völkermarkt 1+ goals
82%
Völkermarkt 2+ goals
52%
Völkermarkt 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
56%
Völkermarkt (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.55 · 47 matches

Völkermarkt away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 1.45 + Völkermarkt defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.99

Völkermarkt attack 0.93 + Stadl-Paura defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
44%
level
21%
Völkermarkt scores more
34%

Stadl-Paura at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stadl-Paura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stadl-Paura vs Völkermarkt

Stadl-Paura beat Völkermarkt 5-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 18, 2019.

The match was played at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura).