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Stadl-Paura vs Union Perg — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
CANC
14:30
Union Perg
Union Perg
3/18/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 18Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stadl-Paura7%
×Draw10%
Union Perg83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
0.94
Union Perg
3.50

Union Perg creates 272% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 87 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
0.00
Union Perg
1.25

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
5.75
Union Perg
1.89

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Union Perg+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Union Perg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
17%
Stadl-Paura or Union Perg
90%
Draw or Union Perg
93%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
2%
Union Perg wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
61%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
24%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
7%
Union Perg 1+ goals
97%
Union Perg 2+ goals
85%
Union Perg 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
7%
Union Perg (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.75 · 8 matches

Union Perg away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.89 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 0.00 + Union Perg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Union Perg attack 1.25 + Stadl-Paura defence 5.75 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
7%
level
10%
Union Perg scores more
83%

Union Perg at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Union Perg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Stadl-Paura host Union Perg

March 18, 2023: Stadl-Paura take on Union Perg in Landesliga - Oberosterreich. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Stadl-Paura host Union Perg at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.