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Stadl-Paura vs Union Edelweiß — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
CANC
14:00
Union Edelweiß
Union Edelweiß
3/4/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 16Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stadl-Paura6%
×Draw10%
Union Edelweiß84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
0.95
Union Edelweiß
3.64

Union Edelweiß creates 283% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 88 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
0.00
Union Edelweiß
1.53

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
5.75
Union Edelweiß
1.90

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Union Edelweiß+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Union Edelweiß →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
16%
Stadl-Paura or Union Edelweiß
90%
Draw or Union Edelweiß
94%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
2%
Union Edelweiß wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
61%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
25%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
7%
Union Edelweiß 1+ goals
97%
Union Edelweiß 2+ goals
87%
Union Edelweiß 3+ goals
68%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
7%
Union Edelweiß (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.75 · 8 matches

Union Edelweiß away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 0.00 + Union Edelweiß defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 0.95

Union Edelweiß attack 1.53 + Stadl-Paura defence 5.75 → ÷2 → 3.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
6%
level
10%
Union Edelweiß scores more
84%

Union Edelweiß at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Union Edelweiß will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stadl-Paura vs Union Edelweiß — Match Preview

Stadl-Paura face Union Edelweiß on March 4, 2023 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stadl-Paura host Union Edelweiß at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.