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Stadl-Paura vs Kalsdorf — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kalsdorf
Kalsdorf
8/6/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 3Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stadl-Paura37%
×Draw22%
Kalsdorf41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
1.77
Kalsdorf
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 79 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
1.45
Kalsdorf
1.20

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
2.55
Kalsdorf
2.10

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Kalsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Kalsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
59%
Stadl-Paura or Kalsdorf
78%
Draw or Kalsdorf
63%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
19%
Kalsdorf wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
83%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
53%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
26%
Kalsdorf 1+ goals
85%
Kalsdorf 2+ goals
56%
Kalsdorf 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
47%
Kalsdorf (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.55 · 47 matches

Kalsdorf away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.10 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 1.45 + Kalsdorf defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kalsdorf attack 1.20 + Stadl-Paura defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
37%
level
22%
Kalsdorf scores more
41%

Kalsdorf at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kalsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Stadl-Paura 0–2 Kalsdorf

Kalsdorf beat Stadl-Paura 2-0 in Regionalliga - Mitte on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura in Stadl-Paura.