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Stadl-Paura vs Gurten — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Gurten
Gurten
9/30/2018Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 10Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stadl-Paura24%
×Draw21%
Gurten55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
1.31
Gurten
2.06

Gurten creates 57% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 106 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
1.45
Gurten
1.58

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
2.55
Gurten
1.18

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Gurten+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Gurten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
45%
Stadl-Paura or Gurten
79%
Draw or Gurten
76%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
10%
Gurten wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
73%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
38%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
14%
Gurten 1+ goals
87%
Gurten 2+ goals
61%
Gurten 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
31%
Gurten (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.55 · 47 matches

Gurten away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.18 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 1.45 + Gurten defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Gurten attack 1.58 + Stadl-Paura defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
24%
level
21%
Gurten scores more
55%

Gurten at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Stadl-Paura 2–3 Gurten

Gurten beat Stadl-Paura 3-2 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura).