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Gurten vs Stadl-Paura — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Gurten
Gurten
CANC
21:00
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
5/9/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 25Park21-Arena Gurten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gurten76%
×Draw15%
Stadl-Paura10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gurten
2.69
Stadl-Paura
0.86

Gurten creates 213% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gurten
1.74
Stadl-Paura
0.91

allows per match

Gurten
0.82
Stadl-Paura
3.64

finishing

Gurten+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gurten ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Gurten or draw
90%
Gurten or Stadl-Paura
85%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
24%

Winning margin

Gurten wins by 2+
54%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gurten 1+ goals
93%
Gurten 2+ goals
74%
Gurten 3+ goals
49%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
58%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
21%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gurten (draw refunded)
89%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gurten at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.82 · 106 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gurten attack 1.74 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.69

Stadl-Paura attack 0.91 + Gurten defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Gurten scores more
76%
level
15%
Stadl-Paura scores more
10%

Gurten at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Gurten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gurten vs Stadl-Paura — Match Preview

Gurten face Stadl-Paura on May 9, 2021 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gurten host Stadl-Paura at Park21-Arena Gurten.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.