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Stadl-Paura vs Grün Weiß Micheldorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
CANC
14:30
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
4/15/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 22Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Stadl-Paura8%
×Draw11%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf82%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
1.06
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
3.56

Grün Weiß Micheldorf creates 236% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 89 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
0.00
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
1.36

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
5.75
Grün Weiß Micheldorf
2.12

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Grün Weiß Micheldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Grün Weiß Micheldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
18%
Stadl-Paura or Grün Weiß Micheldorf
89%
Draw or Grün Weiß Micheldorf
92%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
2%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
65%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
29%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
9%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 1+ goals
97%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 2+ goals
86%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
8%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf (draw refunded)
92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 0.00, concedes 5.75 · 8 matches

Grün Weiß Micheldorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.12 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 0.00 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.36 + Stadl-Paura defence 5.75 → ÷2 → 3.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
8%
level
11%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf scores more
82%

Grün Weiß Micheldorf at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Grün Weiß Micheldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stadl-Paura vs Grün Weiß Micheldorf — Match Preview

Stadl-Paura face Grün Weiß Micheldorf on April 15, 2023 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Stadl-Paura host Grün Weiß Micheldorf at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.