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Stadl-Paura vs Gleisdorf 09 — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
FT
3 – 1
Gleisdorf 09
Gleisdorf 09
4/6/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Round 20Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stadl-Paura29%
×Draw22%
Gleisdorf 0950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadl-Paura
1.52
Gleisdorf 09
2.04

Gleisdorf 09 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 105 away

creates per match

Stadl-Paura
1.45
Gleisdorf 09
1.54

allows per match

Stadl-Paura
2.55
Gleisdorf 09
1.60

finishing

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par
Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadl-Paura ↓

Gleisdorf 09 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Stadl-Paura or draw
50%
Stadl-Paura or Gleisdorf 09
78%
Draw or Gleisdorf 09
71%

Winning margin

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
13%
Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
78%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
45%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
20%
Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals
87%
Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals
60%
Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
37%
Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadl-Paura at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.55 · 47 matches

Gleisdorf 09 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.60 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadl-Paura attack 1.45 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.54 + Stadl-Paura defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stadl-Paura scores more
29%
level
22%
Gleisdorf 09 scores more
50%

Gleisdorf 09 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Stadl-Paura 3–1 Gleisdorf 09

Stadl-Paura beat Gleisdorf 09 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Licht & Planung Arena Stadl-Paura (Stadl-Paura).