Gleisdorf 09 1–4 Stadl-Paura: Result & Stats

Gleisdorf 09

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Stadl-Paura

9/8/2020

Regionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 4Solarstadion der Stadt Gleisdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Gleisdorf 0965%

×Draw17%

Stadl-Paura17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gleisdorf 09Expected goals in this matchStadl-Paura

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.32

Gleisdorf 09

2.67

Stadl-Paura

1.32

Gleisdorf 09 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 45 away

1.69

creates per match

0.91

1.73

allows per match

3.64

creates per match

Gleisdorf 09

1.69

Stadl-Paura

0.91

allows per match

Gleisdorf 09

1.73

Stadl-Paura

3.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gleisdorf 09+0.00on par

Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gleisdorf 09 ↓

Stadl-Paura →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Gleisdorf 09 or draw

83%

Gleisdorf 09 or Stadl-Paura

83%

Draw or Stadl-Paura

35%

Winning margin

Gleisdorf 09 wins by 2+

45%

Stadl-Paura wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Gleisdorf 09 1+ goals

93%

Gleisdorf 09 2+ goals

74%

Gleisdorf 09 3+ goals

49%

Stadl-Paura 1+ goals

73%

Stadl-Paura 2+ goals

38%

Stadl-Paura 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Gleisdorf 09 (draw refunded)

79%

Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gleisdorf 09 at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.73 · 107 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gleisdorf 09 attack 1.69 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.67

Stadl-Paura attack 0.91 + Gleisdorf 09 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Gleisdorf 09 scores more

65%

level

17%

Stadl-Paura scores more

17%

Gleisdorf 09 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Gleisdorf 09 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff