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Stadeln vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Stadeln
Stadeln
Preview
13:00
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
5/15/2027Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 33
45%
Stadeln
model favours
45%22%34%
1–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadeln45%
×Draw22%
Würzburger FV34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadeln
1.97
Würzburger FV
1.69

Stadeln creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stadeln
1.94
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

Stadeln
2.06
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

Stadeln+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadeln ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Stadeln or draw
66%
Stadeln or Würzburger FV
78%
Draw or Würzburger FV
55%

Winning margin

Stadeln wins by 2+
25%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stadeln 1+ goals
86%
Stadeln 2+ goals
58%
Stadeln 3+ goals
31%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
82%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
50%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Stadeln (draw refunded)
57%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadeln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadeln attack 1.94 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Stadeln defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stadeln scores more
45%
level
22%
Würzburger FV scores more
34%

Stadeln at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stadeln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Stadeln
DDLW
FV
DLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stadeln face Würzburger FV (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Stadeln hosting Würzburger FV. Match starts May 15, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.