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Stadeln vs ATSV Erlangen — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Stadeln
Stadeln
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
ATSV Erlangen
ATSV Erlangen
4/25/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 31Sportanlage FSV Stadeln

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Stadeln43%
×Draw23%
ATSV Erlangen34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stadeln
1.81
ATSV Erlangen
1.60

Stadeln creates 13% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

creates per match

Stadeln
1.94
ATSV Erlangen
1.15

allows per match

Stadeln
2.06
ATSV Erlangen
1.69

finishing

Stadeln+0.00on par
ATSV Erlangen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stadeln ↓

ATSV Erlangen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Stadeln or draw
66%
Stadeln or ATSV Erlangen
77%
Draw or ATSV Erlangen
57%

Winning margin

Stadeln wins by 2+
23%
ATSV Erlangen wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Stadeln 1+ goals
84%
Stadeln 2+ goals
54%
Stadeln 3+ goals
27%
ATSV Erlangen 1+ goals
80%
ATSV Erlangen 2+ goals
47%
ATSV Erlangen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Stadeln (draw refunded)
56%
ATSV Erlangen (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stadeln at home — creates 1.94, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

ATSV Erlangen away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stadeln attack 1.94 + ATSV Erlangen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.81

ATSV Erlangen attack 1.15 + Stadeln defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stadeln scores more
43%
level
23%
ATSV Erlangen scores more
34%

Stadeln at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stadeln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Stadeln 1–0 ATSV Erlangen

Stadeln beat ATSV Erlangen 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Sportanlage FSV Stadeln in Fürth.