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Stade Verviers vs AS Eupen II — League #148 2026

Stade Verviers
Stade Verviers
FT
2 – 0
AS Eupen II
AS Eupen II
3/30/2025League #148League #148 · ACFF - 30Stade Communale de Bielmont

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stade Verviers55%
×Draw29%
AS Eupen II16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Verviers
1.30
AS Eupen II
0.57

Stade Verviers creates 128% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stade Verviers
1.00
AS Eupen II
0.80

allows per match

Stade Verviers
0.33
AS Eupen II
1.60

finishing

Stade Verviers+0.00on par
AS Eupen II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Verviers ↓

AS Eupen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Verviers or draw
84%
Stade Verviers or AS Eupen II
71%
Draw or AS Eupen II
45%

Winning margin

Stade Verviers wins by 2+
26%
AS Eupen II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Stade Verviers 1+ goals
73%
Stade Verviers 2+ goals
37%
Stade Verviers 3+ goals
14%
AS Eupen II 1+ goals
43%
AS Eupen II 2+ goals
11%
AS Eupen II 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Stade Verviers (draw refunded)
77%
AS Eupen II (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Verviers at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

AS Eupen II away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Verviers attack 1.00 + AS Eupen II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

AS Eupen II attack 0.80 + Stade Verviers defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stade Verviers scores more
55%
level
29%
AS Eupen II scores more
16%

Stade Verviers at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Stade Verviers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #148: Stade Verviers 2–0 AS Eupen II

Stade Verviers beat AS Eupen II 2-0 in League #148 on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Communale de Bielmont in Verviers.