Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stade Tunisien vs ES Zarzis — League #202 2026

Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ES Zarzis
ES Zarzis
M. Fall 68' (OG)
Z. Attia 45+2'
12/16/2015League #202League #202 · Round 9Stade Chedly-Zouiten

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Stade Tunisien48%
×Draw30%
ES Zarzis22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Tunisien
1.23
ES Zarzis
0.73

Stade Tunisien creates 68% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 58 away

creates per match

Stade Tunisien
1.16
ES Zarzis
0.84

allows per match

Stade Tunisien
0.62
ES Zarzis
1.29

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par
ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

ES Zarzis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw
78%
Stade Tunisien or ES Zarzis
70%
Draw or ES Zarzis
52%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
22%
ES Zarzis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
71%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
35%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
13%
ES Zarzis 1+ goals
52%
ES Zarzis 2+ goals
17%
ES Zarzis 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
69%
ES Zarzis (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches

ES Zarzis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.16 + ES Zarzis defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

ES Zarzis attack 0.84 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more
48%
level
30%
ES Zarzis scores more
22%

Stade Tunisien at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'
Z. Attia
68'
M. FallOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #202: Stade Tunisien 1–1 ES Zarzis

Stade Tunisien and ES Zarzis drew 1-1 in League #202 on December 16, 2015.

Goals: Z. Attia (45+2'), M. Fall (68' o.g.).

The match was played at Stade Chedly-Zouiten in Tunis.