ES Zarzis 0–3 Stade Tunisien: Result & Stats | Cup

ES Zarzis

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Stade Tunisien

B. Mejri 80'

H. Khadraoui 77'

G. Ayadi 45' (pen)

4/20/2024

Cup · Round of 32Complexe Sportif Abdessalem Kazouz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ES Zarzis25%

×Draw24%

Stade Tunisien51%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES ZarzisExpected goals in this matchStade Tunisien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.74

ES Zarzis

1.16

Stade Tunisien

1.74

Stade Tunisien creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.00

creates per match

2.08

1.40

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

ES Zarzis

1.00

Stade Tunisien

2.08

allows per match

ES Zarzis

1.40

Stade Tunisien

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Zarzis+0.00on par

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Zarzis ↓

Stade Tunisien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

ES Zarzis or draw

49%

ES Zarzis or Stade Tunisien

76%

Draw or Stade Tunisien

75%

Winning margin

ES Zarzis wins by 2+

10%

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

ES Zarzis 1+ goals

69%

ES Zarzis 2+ goals

32%

ES Zarzis 3+ goals

11%

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals

82%

Stade Tunisien 2+ goals

52%

Stade Tunisien 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

ES Zarzis (draw refunded)

33%

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Zarzis at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Zarzis attack 1.00 + Stade Tunisien defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Stade Tunisien attack 2.08 + ES Zarzis defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

ES Zarzis scores more

25%

level

24%

Stade Tunisien scores more

51%

Stade Tunisien at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

G. AyadiPenalty

77'

H. Khadraoui

80'

B. Mejri

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff