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Stade Tunisien vs ES Sahel — Cup 2019

Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
ES Sahel
ES Sahel
H. Jouini 59'
L. Ben Hassine 18'
2/19/2023CupCup · Round of 16Stade Hédi-Enneifer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Stade Tunisien38%
×Draw31%
ES Sahel31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Tunisien
1.06
ES Sahel
0.94

Stade Tunisien creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Stade Tunisien
1.50
ES Sahel
1.63

allows per match

Stade Tunisien
0.25
ES Sahel
0.63

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par
ES Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

ES Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw
69%
Stade Tunisien or ES Sahel
69%
Draw or ES Sahel
62%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
15%
ES Sahel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
65%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
29%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
9%
ES Sahel 1+ goals
61%
ES Sahel 2+ goals
24%
ES Sahel 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
55%
ES Sahel (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

ES Sahel away — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.50 + ES Sahel defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.06

ES Sahel attack 1.63 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more
38%
level
31%
ES Sahel scores more
31%

Stade Tunisien at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Ben Hassine
59'
H. Jouini
85'
G. Naouali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Stade Tunisien 1–1 ES Sahel

Stade Tunisien and ES Sahel drew 1-1 in Cup on February 19, 2023.

Goals: L. Ben Hassine (18'), H. Jouini (59').

The match was played at Stade Hédi-Enneifer in Le Bardo.