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Stade Tunisien vs EO Sidi Bouzid — Cup 2019

Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisienadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
EO Sidi Bouzid
EO Sidi Bouzid
4/6/2025CupCup · Round of 32Stade Hédi-Enneifer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Stade Tunisien69%
×Draw22%
EO Sidi Bouzid9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Tunisien
1.75
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.46

Stade Tunisien creates 280% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Stade Tunisien
1.50
EO Sidi Bouzid
0.67

allows per match

Stade Tunisien
0.25
EO Sidi Bouzid
2.00

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par
EO Sidi Bouzid+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

EO Sidi Bouzid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw
91%
Stade Tunisien or EO Sidi Bouzid
78%
Draw or EO Sidi Bouzid
31%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
41%
EO Sidi Bouzid wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
83%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
52%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
25%
EO Sidi Bouzid 1+ goals
37%
EO Sidi Bouzid 2+ goals
8%
EO Sidi Bouzid 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
88%
EO Sidi Bouzid (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.25 · 4 matches

EO Sidi Bouzid away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.50 + EO Sidi Bouzid defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

EO Sidi Bouzid attack 0.67 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more
69%
level
22%
EO Sidi Bouzid scores more
9%

Stade Tunisien at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Stade Tunisien 1–0 EO Sidi Bouzid

Stade Tunisien beat EO Sidi Bouzid 1-0 in Cup on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Hédi-Enneifer in Le Bardo.