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Stade Tunisien vs EGS Gafsa — Ligue 2 2020

Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsa
4/7/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Promotion Round - 1Stade 2 Mars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Stade Tunisien48%
×Draw29%
EGS Gafsa23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Tunisien
1.29
EGS Gafsa
0.80

Stade Tunisien creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 36 away

creates per match

Stade Tunisien
1.29
EGS Gafsa
0.89

allows per match

Stade Tunisien
0.71
EGS Gafsa
1.28

finishing

Stade Tunisien+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Tunisien ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stade Tunisien or draw
77%
Stade Tunisien or EGS Gafsa
71%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
52%

Winning margin

Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
22%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
72%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
37%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
14%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
55%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
19%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
67%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Tunisien at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Tunisien attack 1.29 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

EGS Gafsa attack 0.89 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stade Tunisien scores more
48%
level
29%
EGS Gafsa scores more
23%

Stade Tunisien at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Stade Tunisien 2–1 EGS Gafsa

Stade Tunisien beat EGS Gafsa 2-1 in Ligue 2 on April 7, 2022.

The match was played at Stade 2 Mars in Sfax.