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Stade Renard vs Union Douala — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
1 – 0
Union Douala
Union Douala
2/9/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 11Stade Municipal de Mélong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Stade Renard47%
×Draw31%
Union Douala23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.18
Union Douala
0.72

Stade Renard creates 64% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 85 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Union Douala
0.71

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Union Douala
1.08

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Union Douala+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Union Douala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
77%
Stade Renard or Union Douala
69%
Draw or Union Douala
53%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
21%
Union Douala wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
69%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
33%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
12%
Union Douala 1+ goals
51%
Union Douala 2+ goals
16%
Union Douala 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
68%
Union Douala (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Union Douala away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.08 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Union Douala defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Union Douala attack 0.71 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stade Renard scores more
47%
level
31%
Union Douala scores more
23%

Stade Renard at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stade Renard 1 – 0 Union Douala

Stade Renard beat Union Douala 1-0 in Elite One on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong in Mélong.