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Stade Renard vs UMS de Loum — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
UMS de Loum
UMS de Loum
2/12/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 12Stade de Bonamoussadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Stade Renard41%
×Draw31%
UMS de Loum27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.08
UMS de Loum
0.82

Stade Renard creates 32% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 66 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
UMS de Loum
0.92

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
UMS de Loum
0.89

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
UMS de Loum+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

UMS de Loum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
73%
Stade Renard or UMS de Loum
69%
Draw or UMS de Loum
59%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
17%
UMS de Loum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
66%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
29%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
10%
UMS de Loum 1+ goals
56%
UMS de Loum 2+ goals
20%
UMS de Loum 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
60%
UMS de Loum (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

UMS de Loum away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.89 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + UMS de Loum defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

UMS de Loum attack 0.92 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stade Renard scores more
41%
level
31%
UMS de Loum scores more
27%

Stade Renard at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Renard vs UMS de Loum

UMS de Loum beat Stade Renard 2-1 in Elite One on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Bonamoussadi in Douala.