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Stade Renard vs Renaissance — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
1 – 0
Renaissance
Renaissance
2/19/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 13Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Stade Renard54%
×Draw26%
Renaissance20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.48
Renaissance
0.77

Stade Renard creates 92% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 21 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Renaissance
0.81

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Renaissance
1.67

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Renaissance+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Renaissance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
80%
Stade Renard or Renaissance
74%
Draw or Renaissance
46%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
28%
Renaissance wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
77%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
43%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
19%
Renaissance 1+ goals
54%
Renaissance 2+ goals
18%
Renaissance 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
73%
Renaissance (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Renaissance away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Renaissance defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Renaissance attack 0.81 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stade Renard scores more
54%
level
26%
Renaissance scores more
20%

Stade Renard at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Renard vs Renaissance

Stade Renard beat Renaissance 1-0 in Elite One on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.