Stade Renard 3–1 Jeunes Fauves: Result & Stats

Stade Renard

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jeunes Fauves

5/30/2022

Elite One · Round 22Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Stade Renard54%

×Draw26%

Jeunes Fauves21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade RenardExpected goals in this matchJeunes Fauves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.85

Stade Renard

1.54

Jeunes Fauves

0.85

Stade Renard creates 81% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 47 away

1.28

creates per match

0.98

0.73

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Stade Renard

1.28

Jeunes Fauves

0.98

allows per match

Stade Renard

0.73

Jeunes Fauves

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par

Jeunes Fauves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Jeunes Fauves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw

79%

Stade Renard or Jeunes Fauves

74%

Draw or Jeunes Fauves

46%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+

28%

Jeunes Fauves wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals

79%

Stade Renard 2+ goals

45%

Stade Renard 3+ goals

20%

Jeunes Fauves 1+ goals

57%

Jeunes Fauves 2+ goals

21%

Jeunes Fauves 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)

72%

Jeunes Fauves (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Jeunes Fauves away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Jeunes Fauves defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Jeunes Fauves attack 0.98 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stade Renard scores more

54%

level

26%

Jeunes Fauves scores more

21%

Stade Renard at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff