Stade Renard 1–2 Gazelle: Result & Stats

Stade Renard

FT

1 – 2

Gazelle

4/8/2024

Elite One · Championship Round - 2Stade Mbappe Leppe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Stade Renard41%

×Draw29%

Gazelle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade RenardExpected goals in this matchGazelle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.97

Stade Renard

1.20

Gazelle

0.97

Stade Renard creates 24% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 52 away

1.28

creates per match

1.21

0.73

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Stade Renard

1.28

Gazelle

1.21

allows per match

Stade Renard

0.73

Gazelle

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par

Gazelle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Gazelle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw

70%

Stade Renard or Gazelle

71%

Draw or Gazelle

59%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+

18%

Gazelle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals

70%

Stade Renard 2+ goals

34%

Stade Renard 3+ goals

12%

Gazelle 1+ goals

62%

Gazelle 2+ goals

25%

Gazelle 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)

58%

Gazelle (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Gazelle away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Gazelle defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Gazelle attack 1.21 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stade Renard scores more

41%

level

29%

Gazelle scores more

30%

Stade Renard at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff