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Stade Renard vs Fovu Club — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
1 – 1
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
12/22/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 15Stade Municipal de Mélong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Stade Renard44%
×Draw29%
Fovu Club27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.25
Fovu Club
0.90

Stade Renard creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 67 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Fovu Club
1.06

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Fovu Club
1.22

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
73%
Stade Renard or Fovu Club
71%
Draw or Fovu Club
56%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
20%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
71%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
36%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
13%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
59%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
23%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
62%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Stade Renard scores more
44%
level
29%
Fovu Club scores more
27%

Stade Renard at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Renard vs Fovu Club

Stade Renard and Fovu Club drew 1-1 in Elite One on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong in Mélong.