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Fovu Club vs Stade Renard — Elite One 2019

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
CANC
00:00
Stade Renard
Stade Renard
4/12/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Fovu Club39%
×Draw31%
Stade Renard30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.09
Stade Renard
0.91

Fovu Club creates 20% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 96 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
1.11
Stade Renard
0.88

allows per match

Fovu Club
0.94
Stade Renard
1.07

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

Stade Renard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
70%
Fovu Club or Stade Renard
69%
Draw or Stade Renard
61%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
16%
Stade Renard wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
66%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
30%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
10%
Stade Renard 1+ goals
60%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
23%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
57%
Stade Renard (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.11 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fovu Club scores more
39%
level
31%
Stade Renard scores more
30%

Fovu Club at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fovu Club host Stade Renard

April 12, 2020: Fovu Club take on Stade Renard in Elite One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.