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Stade Renard vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
0 – 1
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
3/28/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 4Stade Municipal de Mélong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Stade Renard46%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.33
Fortuna Mfou
0.91

Stade Renard creates 46% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 96 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
74%
Stade Renard or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
54%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
22%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
74%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
38%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
15%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
60%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
23%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
64%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stade Renard scores more
46%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
26%

Stade Renard at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Renard vs Fortuna Mfou

Fortuna Mfou beat Stade Renard 1-0 in Elite One on March 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong in Mélong.