Fortuna Mfou 0–1 Stade Renard: Result & Stats

Fortuna Mfou

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stade Renard

1/5/2025

Elite One · Round 6Stade Annexe 1 Omnisport

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Fortuna Mfou39%

×Draw29%

Stade Renard32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna MfouExpected goals in this matchStade Renard

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.05

Fortuna Mfou

1.18

Stade Renard

1.05

Fortuna Mfou creates 12% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 96 away

1.28

creates per match

0.88

1.23

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou

1.28

Stade Renard

0.88

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou

1.23

Stade Renard

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Stade Renard+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Stade Renard →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw

68%

Fortuna Mfou or Stade Renard

71%

Draw or Stade Renard

61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

16%

Stade Renard wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

69%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

33%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

12%

Stade Renard 1+ goals

65%

Stade Renard 2+ goals

28%

Stade Renard 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

55%

Stade Renard (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Stade Renard away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.07 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Stade Renard defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Stade Renard attack 0.88 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more

39%

level

29%

Stade Renard scores more

32%

Fortuna Mfou at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff