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Stade Renard vs Fauve Azur Elite — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
1/12/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 7Stade Municipal de Mélong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Stade Renard48%
×Draw31%
Fauve Azur Elite21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.18
Fauve Azur Elite
0.67

Stade Renard creates 76% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Fauve Azur Elite
0.60

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Fauve Azur Elite
1.07

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
79%
Stade Renard or Fauve Azur Elite
69%
Draw or Fauve Azur Elite
52%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
21%
Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
69%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
33%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
12%
Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
49%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
15%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
70%
Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stade Renard scores more
48%
level
31%
Fauve Azur Elite scores more
21%

Stade Renard at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Stade Renard 1–1 Fauve Azur Elite

Stade Renard and Fauve Azur Elite drew 1-1 in Elite One on January 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mélong in Mélong.