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Stade Renard vs Canon — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Canon
Canon
3/29/2024Elite OneElite One · Championship Round - 1Stade Mbappe Leppe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Stade Renard40%
×Draw30%
Canon30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.13
Canon
0.95

Stade Renard creates 19% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 88 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Canon
1.18

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Canon
0.98

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Canon+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Canon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
70%
Stade Renard or Canon
70%
Draw or Canon
60%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
16%
Canon wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
68%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
31%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
11%
Canon 1+ goals
61%
Canon 2+ goals
25%
Canon 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
57%
Canon (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Canon away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Canon defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Canon attack 1.18 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stade Renard scores more
40%
level
30%
Canon scores more
30%

Stade Renard at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Renard vs Canon

Stade Renard and Canon drew 1-1 in Elite One on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Mbappe Leppe in Douala.