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Stade Renard vs Avion Academy — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
4 – 2
HT: 4 – 2
Avion Academy
Avion Academy
11/19/2023Elite OneElite One · Round 8Stade Municipal de Mbouda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Stade Renard48%
×Draw29%
Avion Academy23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.27
Avion Academy
0.77

Stade Renard creates 65% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 67 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Avion Academy
0.82

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Avion Academy
1.25

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Avion Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
77%
Stade Renard or Avion Academy
71%
Draw or Avion Academy
52%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
22%
Avion Academy wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
72%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
36%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
14%
Avion Academy 1+ goals
54%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
18%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
68%
Avion Academy (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Avion Academy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Avion Academy attack 0.82 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stade Renard scores more
48%
level
29%
Avion Academy scores more
23%

Stade Renard at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Renard vs Avion Academy

Stade Renard beat Avion Academy 4-2 in Elite One on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Mbouda in Mbouda.