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Stade Renard vs Aigle Royal de Moungo — Elite One 2019

Stade Renard
Stade Renard
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aigle Royal de Moungo
Aigle Royal de Moungo
2/4/2026Elite OneElite One · Round 3Stade Municipal de Melong

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Stade Renard48%
×Draw28%
Aigle Royal de Moungo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Renard
1.34
Aigle Royal de Moungo
0.86

Stade Renard creates 56% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 27 away

creates per match

Stade Renard
1.28
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.00

allows per match

Stade Renard
0.73
Aigle Royal de Moungo
1.41

finishing

Stade Renard+0.00on par
Aigle Royal de Moungo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Renard ↓

Aigle Royal de Moungo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Stade Renard or draw
76%
Stade Renard or Aigle Royal de Moungo
72%
Draw or Aigle Royal de Moungo
52%

Winning margin

Stade Renard wins by 2+
23%
Aigle Royal de Moungo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Stade Renard 1+ goals
74%
Stade Renard 2+ goals
39%
Stade Renard 3+ goals
15%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 1+ goals
58%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 2+ goals
21%
Aigle Royal de Moungo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Stade Renard (draw refunded)
67%
Aigle Royal de Moungo (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Renard at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.73 · 93 matches

Aigle Royal de Moungo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Renard attack 1.28 + Aigle Royal de Moungo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Aigle Royal de Moungo attack 1.00 + Stade Renard defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stade Renard scores more
48%
level
28%
Aigle Royal de Moungo scores more
24%

Stade Renard at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stade Renard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Stade Renard 1–1 Aigle Royal de Moungo

Stade Renard and Aigle Royal de Moungo drew 1-1 in Elite One on February 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Melong in Melong.