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Stade Pontivy vs Rouen — Coupe de France 2018

Stade Pontivy
Stade Pontivy
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Rouen
Rouen
11/19/2023Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundStade du Faubourg de Verdun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stade Pontivy22%
×Draw24%
Rouen55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Pontivy
1.00
Rouen
1.75

Rouen creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Stade Pontivy
1.17
Rouen
1.67

allows per match

Stade Pontivy
1.83
Rouen
0.83

finishing

Stade Pontivy+0.00on par
Rouen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Pontivy ↓

Rouen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Stade Pontivy or draw
45%
Stade Pontivy or Rouen
76%
Draw or Rouen
78%

Winning margin

Stade Pontivy wins by 2+
8%
Rouen wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Stade Pontivy 1+ goals
63%
Stade Pontivy 2+ goals
26%
Stade Pontivy 3+ goals
8%
Rouen 1+ goals
83%
Rouen 2+ goals
52%
Rouen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Stade Pontivy (draw refunded)
28%
Rouen (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Pontivy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Rouen away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Pontivy attack 1.17 + Rouen defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rouen attack 1.67 + Stade Pontivy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Stade Pontivy scores more
22%
level
24%
Rouen scores more
55%

Rouen at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rouen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stade Pontivy vs Rouen

Rouen beat Stade Pontivy 2-1 in Coupe de France on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Faubourg de Verdun in Pontivy.