Stade Pontivy 0–1 Lorient: Result & Stats

Stade Pontivy

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lorient

12/7/2019

Coupe de France · 8th RoundStade du Faubourg de Verdun

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stade Pontivy15%

×Draw20%

Lorient65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade PontivyExpected goals in this matchLorient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

2.13

Stade Pontivy

0.92

Lorient

2.13

Lorient creates 132% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.17

creates per match

2.42

1.83

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Stade Pontivy

1.17

Lorient

2.42

allows per match

Stade Pontivy

1.83

Lorient

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Pontivy+0.00on par

Lorient+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Pontivy ↓

Lorient →

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–44%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Stade Pontivy or draw

35%

Stade Pontivy or Lorient

80%

Draw or Lorient

85%

Winning margin

Stade Pontivy wins by 2+

Lorient wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Stade Pontivy 1+ goals

60%

Stade Pontivy 2+ goals

23%

Stade Pontivy 3+ goals

Lorient 1+ goals

88%

Lorient 2+ goals

63%

Lorient 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Stade Pontivy (draw refunded)

19%

Lorient (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Stade Pontivy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Lorient away — creates 2.42, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Stade Pontivy attack 1.17 + Lorient defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.92

Lorient attack 2.42 + Stade Pontivy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Stade Pontivy scores more

15%

level

20%

Lorient scores more

65%

Lorient at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lorient will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff