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Stade Pontivy vs Guingamp — Coupe de France 2018

Stade Pontivy
Stade Pontivy
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Guingamp
Guingamp
1/5/2019Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 32nd FinalsStade du Roudourou (Guingamp)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stade Pontivy17%
×Draw19%
Guingamp64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Pontivy
1.13
Guingamp
2.34

Guingamp creates 107% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Stade Pontivy
1.17
Guingamp
2.85

allows per match

Stade Pontivy
1.83
Guingamp
1.08

finishing

Stade Pontivy+0.00on par
Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Pontivy ↓

Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Stade Pontivy or draw
36%
Stade Pontivy or Guingamp
81%
Draw or Guingamp
83%

Winning margin

Stade Pontivy wins by 2+
6%
Guingamp wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Stade Pontivy 1+ goals
68%
Stade Pontivy 2+ goals
31%
Stade Pontivy 3+ goals
11%
Guingamp 1+ goals
90%
Guingamp 2+ goals
67%
Guingamp 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Stade Pontivy (draw refunded)
21%
Guingamp (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Pontivy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Guingamp away — creates 2.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Pontivy attack 1.17 + Guingamp defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Guingamp attack 2.85 + Stade Pontivy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Stade Pontivy scores more
17%
level
19%
Guingamp scores more
64%

Guingamp at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Stade Pontivy 2–4 Guingamp

Guingamp beat Stade Pontivy 4-2 in Coupe de France on January 5, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du Roudourou (Guingamp).