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Stade Pontivy vs Avranches — Coupe de France 2018

Stade Pontivy
Stade Pontivy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Avranches
Avranches
12/8/2018Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 8th RoundStade du Faubourg de Verdun (Pontivy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stade Pontivy24%
×Draw23%
Avranches54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stade Pontivy
1.15
Avranches
1.85

Avranches creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Stade Pontivy
1.17
Avranches
1.86

allows per match

Stade Pontivy
1.83
Avranches
1.14

finishing

Stade Pontivy+0.00on par
Avranches+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Pontivy ↓

Avranches →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Stade Pontivy or draw
46%
Stade Pontivy or Avranches
77%
Draw or Avranches
76%

Winning margin

Stade Pontivy wins by 2+
9%
Avranches wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Stade Pontivy 1+ goals
68%
Stade Pontivy 2+ goals
32%
Stade Pontivy 3+ goals
11%
Avranches 1+ goals
84%
Avranches 2+ goals
55%
Avranches 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Stade Pontivy (draw refunded)
31%
Avranches (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Pontivy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Avranches away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Pontivy attack 1.17 + Avranches defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

Avranches attack 1.86 + Stade Pontivy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Stade Pontivy scores more
24%
level
23%
Avranches scores more
54%

Avranches at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Avranches will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Stade Pontivy 1–0 Avranches

Stade Pontivy beat Avranches 1-0 in Coupe de France on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du Faubourg de Verdun (Pontivy).