Stade Plabennec 2–0 Vannes: Result & Stats

Stade Plabennec

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Vannes

N. Madec 79'

Y. Kujabi 30'

1/7/2023

Coupe de France · Round of 64Stade de Kervéguen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Stade Plabennec26%

×Draw28%

Vannes46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stade PlabennecExpected goals in this matchVannes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.33

Stade Plabennec

0.92

Vannes

1.33

Vannes creates 45% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.83

creates per match

1.67

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Stade Plabennec

0.83

Vannes

1.67

allows per match

Stade Plabennec

1.00

Vannes

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stade Plabennec+0.00on par

Vannes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stade Plabennec ↓

Vannes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stade Plabennec or draw

54%

Stade Plabennec or Vannes

72%

Draw or Vannes

74%

Winning margin

Stade Plabennec wins by 2+

9%

Vannes wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Stade Plabennec 1+ goals

60%

Stade Plabennec 2+ goals

23%

Stade Plabennec 3+ goals

7%

Vannes 1+ goals

74%

Vannes 2+ goals

38%

Vannes 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Stade Plabennec (draw refunded)

36%

Vannes (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stade Plabennec at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Vannes away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stade Plabennec attack 0.83 + Vannes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Vannes attack 1.67 + Stade Plabennec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stade Plabennec scores more

26%

level

28%

Vannes scores more

46%

Vannes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vannes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

30'

46'

55'

61'

63'

L. Guégan← J. Le Saos

63'

H. Le Bolloch← S. Mama

72'

74'

77'

79'

90+1'

Statistics

StadeVannes

Overview

0Corners0

Shots

1Inside Box0

Discipline

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Coupe de France: Stade Plabennec 2–0 Vannes

Stade Plabennec beat Vannes 2-0 in Coupe de France on January 7, 2023.

Goals: Y. Kujabi (30'), N. Madec (79').

The match was played at Stade de Kervéguen in Plabennec.

Stade Plabennec vs Vannes — Coupe de France 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Coupe de France: Stade Plabennec 2–0 Vannes